Virginia Tomorrow

1. Obama in Virginia

We’re more than 2 years away from the 2012 presidential election, don’t know who the Republican nominee will be, and cannot predict what the economic landscape will actually be. But it’s hard to believe that the GOP won’t be far more competitive in 2012 than in 2008. My sense is that many independents in Virginia (and across the nation) currently are feeling buyer’s remorse. In addition, it will be difficult for Democrats to point to any direct benefit the Commonwealth has received from supporting Obama- allocation of dollars on high speed rail to a state such as Florida and the decision to close JFCOM managed to anger elected officials across the spectrum. If there is an electoral calculus undergirding decision-making in the Obama administration, it doesn’t appear to have Virginia at its core.

2. The White House, the Mosque near Ground Zero and the 2010 Elections 

The last two days have provided an excellent example of the frustration that that Democrats, including many Virginia Democrats, are feeling about the White House.  Democrats who are attempting to hold seats in moderate districts were baffled and distressed than the president inserted himself in the controversy by seemingly endorsing its construction on Friday night. On Saturday, the White House apparently drew a distinction between endorsing the “right” to construct the Mosque and the appropriateness of doing so, though it also asserted that the President was not backing away from the position he had taken on Friday evening. Here’s the bottom line for the Commonwealth, a state where one of the 9-11 attacks occurred: the White House has now made the issue part of every congressional race in Virginia.  Each and every Democrat will be compelled to say where they stand on the Ground Zero mosque.

3. The White House Gives Tim Kaine a Vote of Confidence

The White House political oepration responded to a question this week and gave Tim Kaine a vote of confidence for the job he’s performing as Democratic National Committee Chair. At the moment, the Democrats are doing  a very good job raising money, a matter that threatens to become the GOP’s Achilles Heel in 2010. And Democrats believe that the success of Tea-Party oriented candidates in recent Republican nomination contests has left the GOP with some weak and beatable candidates. Perhaps so. But it’s hard to think that voter anger this fall won’t be disproportionately aimed at the Democrats. At that time, votes of confidence will be replaced by another venerable political activity: pointing the finger of blame.

4. The Proposed JFCOM Closing

Was the kind of the event that quickly overcame all other news in the Commonwealth this week. Concern about what the cuts might mean to the Commonwealth and to the nation’s defense evoked a  moment of bipartisan outrage at the decision.  Yet both Governor McDonnell and Congressman Randy Forbes laid the blame squarely at the ideological orientation of the Obama administration, arguing that the JFCOM closure was linked to policy priorities that downgraded defense at the expense of expansive social programs. Regardless of what you thnk of the partisan features of Forbes’ and McDonnell’s argument, it is clear that having 8 Democratic members of Virginia’s House delegation, 2 U.S. Senators, and a fomer Governor as Chair of the DNC didn’t have much influence on Robert Gates and the White House.

5. McDonnell Asks Feds to Deputize Troopers

Bob McDonnell disclosed this week that he’s asked the federal government to deputize Virginia state troopers so that might enforce national immigration laws in the Commonwealth.  I’m not sure what the ultimate policy response will be, but its hard to see how McDonnell loses politically on this. He addresses a hot button issue that has conservatives fully mobilized, yet does so in a manner- simply requesting permission to enforce the law- that doesn’t generate the fevered opposition that has arisen to Arizona’s Governor Brewer.