Virginia Tomorrow

1. It’s Deja Vu All Over Again

The McDonnell administration got firsthand experience this week with the VITA mess. A systems meltdown lasting multiple days prevented thousands of Virginians from renewing their licenses and paying their taxes. A signature initiative of the Warner administration, VITA has turned out to be an ongoing problem for his successors. The McDonnell administration quickly took the right steps to extend DMV customer service hours and initiate an independent investigation of the meltdown.

 But the question emerging is this: Is VITA too big to succeed?

2.  A Logic of Its Own

There’s no logical connection between the VITA problems and the ABC privatization initiative. The former is a public-private partnership intended to perform a core mission of Virginia state government while the latter is a proposal to divest the state of its role in an activity that can be easily assumed by the private sector. But don’t for a minute think that opponents of privatization won’t cite the VITA mess as a reason not to go forward with getting the state out of the liquor business.

Anyone who understands the political arena is aware that it has a logic of its own and, in this instance, the problems of one big initiative are likely to be put forward as an argument against big initiatives in general.

3.  McDonnell v. ABC as We Know It

A. The Core Services Argument- McDonnell wins this hands down. Who believes that selling liquor is a core service of state government? Unfortunately, the argument really doesn’t move anyone to change the status quo.

B. The Community Impact Argument- Here again, McDonnell may well be right: privatization of liquor sales in the 21st Century doesn’t necessarily have a negative social impact. Yet rural conservatives and urban moralists either do not agree or simply do not see enough benefits in privatization to support taking the risk. This is a very serious political challenge because it transcends partisan lines and includes some Republicans as well as some Democrats.

C. The Economic Impact on the State: The McDonnell administration has been clear that it’s ultimate plan for privatization will not have a negative impact on the state’s bottom line. Opponents have argued that the economic impact will be negative or, at a minimum, too uncertain to support. We’ll get a better sense of this later this week when the draft plan is unveiled- for now, however, it appears that it’ll be difficult to generate enough momentum for passage simply on the argument that privatization is essentially a wash for the state budget.

D. The Big Benefit:  The McDonnell administration will argue that the benefits of privatization will enable the state to make a huge downpayment toward fixing the transportation mess. Remarkably, this issue has received little coverage to date.

But if the McDonnell administration is to overcome the inertia that always favors the status quo, the suspicion that moralists have about privatization, and the concern that privatization is a budgetary wash, it will need to focus on the big benefits and show how these cannot be achieved in any other acceptable manner.

4. UVA Tops Cuccinelli in Court

A judge ruled this week that the University of Virginia would not have to produce the materials that Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli requested in a Civil Investigative Demand. The AG’s office put a positive spin on the loss, noting that it would produce a new request for information that would be compatible with the principles outlined in the decision. I’m not sure how it does so in a manner that will prompt UVA to comply. Having won a victory in court asserting principles of academic freedom, it’s difficult to see how a new request for the same or similar information won’t also be litigated.

While most Virginia conservatives strongly support Cuccinelli’s challenge to federal overreach and the Democratic health care bill, they have been relatively silent about the lawsuit which pits the AG’s office against Virginia’s flagship university.

5. Poll Power?

Tom Perriello is one of the hardest working people in Congress and a very tough campaigner. But polls conducted by SurveyUSA have Perriello down by more than 20 points to Robert Hurt. And today The New York Times is reporting that Perriello is in danger of being written by the Democratic party establishment. Despite holding a considerable financial advantage over Robert Hurt!  Virginia Democrats like Tom Perriello very much and respect his work ethic- they may want to hear from the DNC Chair very soon about whether the Times report is an accurate reflection of the party’s current thinking.

Update: Sunday Evening

Here is the statement released earlier today by the DCCC regarding the Times‘ story.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen released the following statement on today’s New York Times story, “Democrats Plan Political Triage to Retain the House.” 

“Today’s New York Times story erroneously suggests that the DCCC has decided not to allocate resources to specific campaigns. That simply is not the case.

 ”The Members of Congress referenced in the article are all running strong campaigns focused on their solid records and drawing sharp distinctions between themselves and their opponents on the key issues at stake in this election. The DCCC is heavily invested in these campaigns. In each campaign mentioned, the DCCC has provided and continues to provide support  for field operations and other key campaign activities.

 ”House campaigns are won race-by-race on the ground and our Members and candidates are running aggressive voter contact programs focused on the choice between policies that will accelerate job growth and those that would kill the fragile recovery.  House Republican candidates,  whose views are far out of the mainstream of swing districts, will have to answer for their plans to: repeal the law to  rein in reckless speculation on Wall Street; give subsidies to companies that outsource American jobs; bust the budget and balloon the deficit; and privatize Medicare and Social Security.

 ”Every campaign cycle the DCCC and other campaign committees face difficult resource allocation decisions and this election cycle is no different. What is different is the kind of choice before the American people at this critical juncture - do we move forward and build on the fragile economic progress we have made or do we adopt an economic agenda that will kill the budding job growth and send us back into a deep economic ditch.”

6. Barham Retires at VSBA

Frank Barham has announced his upcoming retirement as Executive Director of the Virginia School Boards Association. In his tenure at VSBA, Barham helped to fashion the organization into a powerful voice for School Boards across Virginia and a crucially important player in debates about educational policy in the Commonwealth. For 20 years, public polling has shown that K-12 education is always at the top or right to the next to the top of citizen concerns in Virginia. Frank Barham never missed an opportunity to remind people of this fact. In doing so, he performed an important service for the Commonwealth.