Virginia Tomorrow

1. The Three Hardest Words

For a politician to say is “I was wrong.”  Governor Bob McDonnell went to Norfolk State University this week and apologized for the damage caused earlier this year when he issued a Confederate History Month proclamation that did not mention slavery. McDonnell noted that in the future he would call for a “Remembrance” of the Civil War in its entirety. Regardless of  one’s partisan leanings, McDonnell’s willingness to admit his mistake tells us a lot about the kind of person he is. It was an important moment for McDonnell, who made it absolutely clear that he has no intention of trying to fan racial sentiments in the Commonwealth. And was a model of how real leaders take ownership of their mistakes.

2. Short-Listed?

It increasingly looks as if Bob McDonnell will find himself short-listed in the GOP Vice-Presidential sweepstakes in 2012. McDonnell has been the featured headliner at GOP fundraisers for candidates running in multiple states. If he can keep his approval rating in Virginia relatively high, he will be seen as a very attractive option, especialy for candidates who’ll want to retake the Commonwealth for the GOP. There’s one cautionary note. Virginians don’t seem to take too kindly to having their Governors in the national spotlight and McDonnell has to negotiate a careful balancing act, raising his national profile without having Virginians think that he’s abandoning us.

3. VDOT Doesn’t Spend Enough

That’s the finding this week of what some members of the media described as an “explosive” audit of the operation of the Virginia Department of Transportation. At a time when everyone seems to be angry at government (especially Democrats)  for spending too much, it’s a perfect counter-type narrative (my favorite kind of story) when a Republican Governor criticizes his Democratic predecessor for his inability to get the money out the door. It appears that management turnover, bureaucratic inertia, and staffing problems left VDOT without the capacity to spend the full amount of money it was allocated to repair roads and start projects. 

Want to know a little secret?

This happens much more frequently than anyone typically wants to admit. (Just ask what percentage of the federal stimulus money has actually been spent?) Hiring for competitive positions that require high levels of technical competence is often very difficult in public institutions. Internal and external obstructionists who want to place roadblocks in front of projects can be very difficult to work around. And year-end “fund balances” that arise from these challenges can be larger than anyone wants to admit. The reality is that this is not a partisan problem, but one that arises with a degree of regularity in today’s public environment.

4. Talk About Counter-Type

How about Tom Perriello getting the NRA endorsement. While the NRA does call Robert Hurt a “true friend,” the decision to endorse Perriello is a major bosst to the incumbent’s campaign, helping him with voters who might not be very happy with Perriello’s support for some elements of the national Democratic agenda.  Does the NRA have enough clout to help Perriello keep his seat? And what do conservatives who have Perriello as a prime political target this year say about the NRA?

5. Sorry, It’s Not My Deal

That’s what Ken Cuccinelli said, in effect, this week about the agreement that Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling negotiated in 2008 that let McDonnell run unopposed for the GOP nomination and designated Bolling as his heir apparent for the 2013 nomination. While noting that still, at this moment, he was leaning toward running for-reelection as Attorney-General, Cuccinelli also observed that he would be making his own decision, that he would not be bound by an agreement to which he wasn’t a party, and that what the Lieutenant Governor thinks he should do wouldn’t determine his actions. Let’s be clear, Cuccinelli is running. The only question is….

6. For What?

Here are the possibilities.

Senate in 2012- If George Allen’s “perhaps” turns out to be a no,  a Cuccinelli run at the Webb seat could solve the GOP succession issue. The AG gets to make his argument about federal overrreach on a wider stage and the McDonnell-Bolling agreement remains intact. The big problem. I don’t see any reason why Allen doesn’t take the rematch with Webb.

Governor in 2013- The Bolling camp referenced comments that Cuccinelli made during the 2009 campaign to the effect that he would not run for Governor in 2013. But the basic political fact is that politicians are rarely punished for deciding to run for office. And they can always find a good reason to do so, usually one that refers to how their candidacy is a direct response to the thousands of individuals who requested they run. Given his support among elements of the GOP base, it won’t be hard to start a “Draft Cuccinelli” movement.

AG in 2013 and Senate in 2014- Cuccinelli could run for re-election as AG in 2013 and then take on Mark Warner in 2014. But this is the least likely outcome. The wait is too long. And Cuccinelli would have to enter the race knowing his financial disadvantage would be daunting.

The bottom line- if Allen runs for Senate in 2012, it’s hard not to imagine a Republican intra-party contest in ‘13.