Virginia Tomorrow

1. The Tea Party Succeeds

This week’s Virginia Tea Party convention was an indication how formidable the movement has become and how important it may be to upcoming Republican Party nomination contests. Perhaps the largest signal of the Tea Party’s success was the interest that Virginia statewide officeholders and future candidates expressed in having a prominent role at the event. Governor Bob McDonnell, Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, former Governor/Senator George Allen, and Delegate Bob Marshall  were all featured during the week-end. At the same time, I had the sense that that it was an unusual convention, one more focused on promoting the Tea Party’s ideas and influence than in celebrating individual personalities.

2. There Was One Exception

And Cuccinelli’s the name. Virginia’s AG was in the Tea Party before it was even invented. And his no trimming, no excuses, take no prisoners, anti-Washington stances fit perfectly with the ethos and attitude embodied by the movement.  Cuccinelli’s been in office less than a year and and many Republicans will privately tell you all the reservations they have about the AG. But make no mistake. He’s become a force of nature with the Tea Party grassroots.

3. At the Moment…

Tea Party notions about limiting government spending are extremely popular in GOP circles (and with a good portion of the population).  It is in many ways the dominant political theme this fall.  While Tea partiers are unwilling to give Republicans a free ride on these issues- they had some pointed questions for the Governor and Lieutenant Governor on tax breaks and accepting federal stimulus monies-most Tea Party supporters will be pulling the GOP lever in 2010. I believe that they are a significant reason that Republicans are feeling much more enthisatstic about this year’s election than Democrats.

4. It Might Get More Complicated…

After 2010.  There are many commentators who have maintained that the Tea party is likely to avoid controversial social issues.  They obviously weren’t at the Richmond Convention center this weekend. One point that has not received much mention was the visibility and centrality of 2nd Amendment advocates among the participants.  I could be mistaken, but my impression is that 2nd Amendment advocates, especially those affiliated with the Virginia Citizens Defense League,  comprised a sizeable number of the attendees. Philip Van Cleave of the Virginia Citizen Defense League offered a seminar at the convention. Supporters of “open carry” policies were visible and conducted a number of radio interviews with  talk show hosts broadcasting from the site.  As most tea partiers are, they are extremely passionate about adhering to what they believe are the Constitution’s core principles and about issues such as open carry on college campuses and public festivals.  Look for the Democrats to  highlight these issues and try to drive a wedge between the Tea Party and the GOP as the run-up to 2012 develops.

5. Cuccinelli v. UVA: Round Two

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli  sent the University of Virginia another Civil Investigative Demand this week in his ongoing fraud inquiry regarding the work of climate scientist and former UVA Professor Michael Mann. The AG also announced that he’s appealing parts of the decision in which a judge upheld UVA’s refusal to comply with the original CID.  In essence, the case will now be in court on two fronts. UVA will seek judicial relief from the 2nd CID while the AG will be seeking to have the first decision that went against his office overturned. At the Tea Party convention, mere mention of the Cuccinelli Health Care litigation resulted in a standing ovation. But this isn’t a 10th Amendment case, it’s a suit against Virginia’s flagship university. Politically, it’ll be fascinating to see whether the Governor and Lieutenant Governor have Cuccinelli’s back on this one or are content to let him go it alone.

6. Remember the Old Rule

That candidates were given a free pass for any non-criminal behavior they engaged in before the age of 25. Forget about it. That’s what Democratic congressional candidate Krystal Ball found out this week  when   pictures surfaced on the web showing the 22 year old Ball in a Santa outfit at a holiday party with ex-husband on a lease with a sex toy on his nose.  Ball suggested that the release of the pictures demonstrated the sexist nature of the GOP bloggers who posted the photos. The explanation may be much simpler. In today’s photo- and- video rich environment, the politics of embarassment will occupy an increasingly larger role in electoral camapigns.

7. No Special

Michael Martz of the RTD wrote stories this week detailing the tough slog that the ABC privatization proposal is having with some Richmond area Republicans, particularly Delegate Lee Ware. The basic theme has been repeated in the press across Virginia in the last few weeks, detailing the reservations that many GOP Assembly members have about the idea. It’s hard to see how a special session could be useful. If privatization is to have a chance to succeed, it might have to be part of a larger series of reforms that the Governor proposes about Virginia state government and its revenue streams. Norm Leahy has been writing about this and I think he’s correct. Look for this to be the “big picture”  theme of the upcoming  Assembly session, one that makes ABC privatization an important component of a reform agenda.