Virginia Tomorrow

1. “I’ll Try the Regular….”

Session that is. This is what Bob McDonnell said this week about the ABC privatization proposal that’s been plagued by GOP defections in the House. I think that the original political strategy was relatively straightforward. Utilize a large GOP majority to win in the House. And then put NOVA and Hampton Roads Senate Democrats under relentless pressure by turning the vote into a litmus test about supporting funding for transportation improvements. But the extent of GOP opposition in the House clearly surprised the administration. The decision to try the regular buys time for a Plan B to emerge in January.

2. The Democrats “Up Cycle”

DNC Chair and former Governor Tim Kaine said on the Today show this week that the Democats would be hitting the November elections on an “up cycle.”  I’m not quite sure what this means, but it doesn’t appear to be a victory forecast. From what my Democratic friends are telling me, the ”up cycle” appears to signal that the elevator has moved upwards from the parking garage to the basement.

3. The Virginia Races

Still seem to be marked by a great deal of uncertainty.  While almost every one has written off the possibiity of the Democrats keeping control of the House, the Virginia races are very difficult to forecast. An embattled incumbent such as Tom Perriello is running a far stronger campaign than many observers foresaw, while GOP challenger Keith Fimian appears to be more competitive in NOVA than many imagined. If the Virginia Dems hold their losses to only one seat, they may start talking about being on the upcycle as well.

4. 2011 Whispers Getting Louder

Most of us will be watching how redistricting wil reshape the Assembly and congressional district lines. But I think that a bigger story may actually be emerging- a relatively organized effort by activists and supporters of the Tea Party to carry the fight against GOP establishment leaders who are not perceived as sufficiently conservative to Republican nomination contests. We saw some of this in 2007- it will be repeated, maybe even on a larger scale in 2011. Put simply, there are many Republicans who have far more to fear from competition in their own party than they will from Democratic opponents. This dynamic is likely to be very influential in the upcoming Assembly sesion.

5. Radtke Doesn’t Dampen Speculation

I noted last week that Jamie Radtke’s success in pulling off the broadly attended and widely recognized Tea Party convention gives her an enthusiastic base for a potential candidacy. Asked about the prospect by The Washington Post this week, Radtke certainly didn’t lay the possibiity to rest. I wouldn’t underestimate either the importance of the new activists or the potential rivalries emerging inside the Virginia GOP. Elected officials such as  Ken Cuccinelli, activists like Radtke, and writers such as Norm Leahy are developing both an alternative power base and an insurgent narrative that won’t be easily dismissed by establishment conservatives. It’s a genuinely new force in Virginia Republican circles. One head scratcher: Why are some of these folks opposing the original GOP insurgent, George Allen,  in 2012?

6. Sammy Hagar’s Feeling Good

A few local jurisdictions expressed disappontment with the Governor’s decision to implement his campaign promise and raise the speed limit to 70 mph on hundreds of miles of Virginia interstates. But I think that the majority of Virginians who reglarly drive out-of-state roads (especially those south and west of us) are probably applauding the decision. Maybe Sammy Hagar will change the lyrics a bit and sing his anthem  ”I Can’t Drive 65″ at the next Tea Party convention.