Virginia Tomorrow

1. The Early Warning Signal That the Democrats

Didn’t heed was Bob McDonnell’s 2009 election. Three trends evident in McDonnell’s landslide victory- the reversal of the enthusiasm gap, the abandonment of the Democratic Party by independents, and the nationalization of a state level election- go a long way toward explaining  what happened on Tuesday. Republicans were more highly motivated, independents gravitated to the GOP in large numbers, and 40% of the electorate in senatorial and congressional races said that they wanted to send a message to the President with their vote.  The political root canal that the Democrats experienced on Tuesday happened, in part, because they let the cavity exposed by McDonnell’s election go untreated.

2. RIP: Tip O’Neill’s Famous Adage

How many times have we heard it. “All Politics is Local.”  It’s fun to hear someone say it, but who can seriously believe this in Virginia anymore as our politics become tied ever more closely to national trends? Virginia Democrats did extremely well in the middle of the last decade as George Bush’s unpopularity became a millstone around the necks of the Republicans. Last Tuesday, Democratic congressional candidates in Virginia found themselves on the wrong side of a national wave election. In short, it is becoming increasingly difficult for individual candidates (of either party) to avoid being impacted by the broader national political environment.

3. Hurt(s) So Bad

That’s what Democrats, in Virginia and elsewhere, are saying about Tom Perriello’s defeat at the hands of Robert Hurt last Tuesday. Perriello has quickly become one of the most popular Democrats in the state. He’s an extraordinarily hard worker; he appeared to be one of the few Democrats in the country who was both in a close race and actually willing to run on a record of supporting health care reform; and he continued to energize the party’s activist base. Ultimately, Perriello’s views are a far better fit for the C’ville-Albemarle part of his district than some of its more rural venues and he couldn’t withstand the anti-Obama/Pelosi/Reid wave. Afterwards, Perriello said that he might give up politics together and return to the nonprofit world. But if you think about the state of Virginia Democrats today, this is truly a case where his party needs him.

4. Allen’s Punditry

I spoke to George Allen the week before the election and he told me that Morgan Griffith was his upset special. And he pointed to events transpiring in West Virginia as the reason why Boucher could be defeated. Allen noted that the Democratic candidate for Senate in West Virginia, Governor Joe Manchin, was essentially running against the major positions of his own party and was especially vehement in his denunciations of cap and trade (legislation which Boucher helped to write in an attempt to make it less destructive to the coal industry). Manchin’s ads were all over the Bluefield media area in the 9th District and Allen believed that the West Virginia Governor was Griffith’s inadvertent tag team partner. At the time, I thought Allen’s analysis to be a bit of partisan wishful thinking.  But the prediction turned out to be right on target.  And Mason Adams’ insightful post-mortem in The Roanoke Times pointed to the Manchin Effect as a key factor in Boucher’s defeat.

5. Speaking of the Roanoke Times

It has clearly what is the most underrrated political team in the Virginia media with Mason Adams, Mike Sluss, and the return of Dwayne Yancey from editing to election analysis, at least on  a part-time basis. The Blue Ridge Caucus blog that the paper started a few weeks back has become a must read for understanding state elections and politics in the New River Valley. It’s a great vehicle for stellar reporters such as Adams and Sluss.  And I’ve been struck by Yancey’s insight and inventiveness. One of the state’s most highly respected political reporters in the 1980’s and 1990’s (if you haven’t read his book on Doug Wilder, When Hell Freezes Over, you should), Yancey brings an historical understanding to contemporary elections that is always illuminating. He has a knack for applying data gathered from national sources to Virginia in thoughtful and inventive ways. And he manages to convey the zaniness and unpredictability of campaigns without becoming cynical. The blog format turns out to be perfect for Yancey’s quirky, idiosyncratic touch.

6. Eric Cantor

Looks to be a shoo-in as the new House Majority Leader. And Cantor already appears to be serving as the GOP point guard in the emerging battle over extending the Bush tax cuts.  The Republicans want to extend the tax breaks for everyone, regardless of income. The President is likely to insist on a ceiling (probably considerably higher than his campaign pledge of $250,000 per year) so that “millionaires” and “billionaires” don’t benefit from a tax cut extension.  This is shaping up to be the big battle of the lame duck session and Cantor’s capacity to frame the Republican argument in a politcally appealing way will be a major test that occurs even before he officially assumes his new post.