Virginia Tomorrow

It was an extremely slow political week, though our leading political figures all found something to be thankful for.

1. Mark Warner

Virginia’s junior senator may have been one of the few Democrats who didn’t mind the whipping his party took at the beginning of the month. Warner could well be thankful for a divided national government. With the GOP controlling the House and the Democrats running the Senate, Warner’s “radical centrism” and professed interest in working across party lines is likely to come back in vogue. Warner will get a chance to prove that the middle of the political road is something other than the place where you get run over.

2. Bob McDonnell

Although his ABC plan ran into much heavier opposition within his own party than he expected, McDonnell’s first year has been generally successful, especially given the extent of the budget shortfall he inherited. A prominent Virginia political figure once told me that “I don’t know what I’ve done in life to be blessed with the political opponents that I’ve had,” but the Virginia Governor must be thankful for the parlous condition of the state Democratic Party. What other recent Governor had an entire first year when the opposition party essentially didn’t even have a spokesperson?

3. Eric Cantor

The new GOP Majority Leader was overheard giving thanks for Nancy Pelosi. In less than 4 years as Speaker, Pelosi managed to put out to pasture Tip O’Neill’s adage.a that “all politics is local.”  The Republicans successfully placed Pelosi and the agenda of the national Democratic Party on the ballot in all 50 states (or at least in 49 if you don’t count California).  The GOP seems to believe that Pelosi’s selection as Minority Leader may be the gift that keeps on giving. Cantor shouldn’t count on it.  The GOP will now be held at least partially responsible for the public’s opinion about Congress and this may well be Cantor’s greatest challenge.

4. Ken Cuccinelli

Is thankful for the emergence of the Tea Party as a force in GOP politics, both in Virginia and nationally. Virginia’s AG, who was in the Tea Party before it was created, now has a ready-made political base that’s awfully enthusiastic about the lawsuits he’s lobbed at the feds. A recent Public Policy Polling survey aside, no one should underestimate Cuccinelli’s potential influence within GOP nominating contests. But guessing what Cuccinelli intends to do with this has become one of the most popular political parlor games in the Capital. 2011 may provide the answer.

5. Bolling Thankful for Cuccinelli’s Position on Convention Fees

Unlike the Attorney General, the Lieutenant Governor doesn’t have the capacity to sue. And Bill Bolling has had to be content with diligently pursuing his responsibilities as Virginia’s Chief Jobs Creation Officer while Ken Cuccinelli’s litigation against the feds grabs the headlines. With the possible exception of the suits against UVA, all of Cuccinelli’s court challenges are music to the ears of Republican activists.  But Cuccinelli’s effort to seek higher fees from GOP convention participants and  nomination candidates provided a good opening for the Lieutenant Governor to position himself on the side of lower fees and broader participation in party contests.  Bolling’s thankful that he was able to draw a distinction that should play well in GOP circles.

6. Dems Thankful for Cuccinelli

The prospect of Cuccinelli becoming involved in hard fought GOP nominating contests has many Democrats thankful. A divided opposition party may not be as good as a clear and powerful message delivered by a consensus leader. But, hey, Virginia Democrats will take whatever they get at the moment. And if its a Republican battle for a major nomination, the Dems will be happy to see it.

7. Gerry Connolly

Is thankful for the reporter at the D.C. television station that got Keith Fimian on record the week before the election saying that the Virginia Tech tragedy might have been avoided if some of the students were packing heat, implicitly attacking the law that prohibits guns on college campuses. Fimian tried to dance away from the comment, noting that he was really talking about having security guards nearby and not students. But the political damage was done. Fimian’s position might be supported in some areas of the state, but Fairfax County is not one of them. He tossed away the 900+ votes that would have made him the 4th Republican challenger to win in Virginia this year.

8. Jim Webb

Is thankful that his re-election comes up in 2012 and not in 2010. No one likes to be on the wrong side of a political tidal wave and Webb would have likely joined Boucher, Perriello and Nye on the political sidelines. Webb, if he decides to run in 2012, is obviously hoping that the sour economy improves and the heavy political tides begin to shift again. A potential rematch with George Allen is likely to be one of the most closely watched contests in the country.