Virginia Tomorrow

1. The Kaine Preference

The Democratic Party establishment made it clear at the JJ dinner last might that Tim Kaine is its first choice for a Senate nominee to replace Jim Webb. Speaker after speaker expressed their perference for the former Governor openly and directly. And while Kaine told an interviewer just a few weeks ago that he didn’t see another run for elected office in his future, Virginia Democrats will be terribly disappointed if he doesn’t change his mind.

2. Who’s Next?

In line if Kaine decides not to become a candidate. Tom Perriello is extraordinarily well-liked by Democratic activists and would certainly be a strong contender for the nomination. Given his background and experience, I could also imagine Terry McAuliffe seriously considering a Senate run.

And perhaps most intiguing of all, Donald McEachin dropped Bobby Scott’s name into the hopper this weekend (and Scott did not dampen the speculation). Scott has contemplated Senate races previously, but has never gotten beyond the consideration phase. Yet if Scott was to enter a nomination contest, he’d be extremely tough to defeat in a Democratic primary.

3. The Obama Factor

My own sense is that the context of the 2012 Senate race in Virginia is likely to be heavily influenced by the Presidential contest. At the moment, President Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is about 44%. This is lower than his national numbers and lower than he’d like to be in Virginia. But it isn’t catastrophic (and its much higher than George Bush’s rating at his nadir.). An economic rebound and/or a few GOP missteps will make the President competitive in the Commonwealth. Yet if he’s going to have a chance in the state, he’ll have to win back a portion of the independent voters than abandoned the Democrats in 2009 and 2010.

4. “Thank God for the Virginia Senate”

That’s what Dick Saslaw told the JJ crowd he’s been hearing from people across the Commonwealth.  The Senate Majority Leader observed that if the House Republicans had their way, Virginia would become a mix of Alabama, Mississippi and Arizona. (It’ll be fascinating to hear Speaker Howell’s take on this.)After listening to the Majority leader, it’s hard to doubt that the battle over control of the Senate in November won’t be heated and intense.

5. The Wisconsin Connection

Is a great example of how an unpredictable event in another part of the country can help to shape the political dialogue in Virginia.

Democratic legislators reacted Governor Scott Walker’s effort to address a budget shortfall by limiting the collective bargaining rights of state employees by traveling to points outside the state, depriving the assembly of a quorum necesary to pass the bill.

Governor McDonnell has entered the fray with an extended statement in defense of Walker while Tim Kaine and other Democrats have praised the legislators who skipped town for defending the rights of public employees and unions.

There’s no doubt that the national Democrats intend to make this a key issue to mobilize the party’s base in 2012.

What I am far less certain of, however, is exactly how well this issue will play for the D’s in Virginia.

6. Is Demography Destiny?

I actually think that nothing has picked up Democratic spirits so much in recent weeks as the inirial release of 2010 census data.

While the GOP apparently gains from population shifts to southern and southwestern states, Democrats were very pleased to learn that minority populations (with whom they are doing very well electorally) are increasing across the country. 

Many Democrats continue to believe that if they can mobilize their base, they stand a very good chance of retaining the White House.

I tend not to believe that demography is political destiny, but agree that the census numbers define a key challenge for the GOP over the next two decades.